TV’s share of the global ad market has risen steadily from 37% in 2005 to 39.9% in 2010, yet muted growth is expected for 2011 and 2012, according to [pdf] a December 2011 forecast from Zenith Optimedia. TV ad spend is expected to total about $184.3 billion USD this year, or 40.2% of the total ad market, and rise to $193.7 billion in 2012 to represent 40.4% of the market. However, beyond that, a slight decline is forecast to 40.3% in 2013 and 40.2% in 2014. Even so, Zenith predicts TV ad spend to contribute 41.1% of new ad dollars between 2011 and 2014.
Total global ad spend, forecast at $458.4 billion for 2011, is expected to grow about 16.7% to roughly $534.4 billion in 2014.
Cable to Drive US TV Ad Growth
Cable networks will continue to build momentum, and are expected to overtake network TV to command the largest share of the US national TV ad market in 2011, according to other December analysis from Zenith Optimedia. Data from the analysis indicates that network TV will end 2011 down 2%, with a further decrease of 1% in 2012 despite the return of the Olympics to NBC. Meanwhile, the spot TV marketplace is predicted to rise 4% this year and 8% in 2012, driven by an increase in spend by the apparel category. By contrast, Zenith predicts a 4% decrease in advertising expenditure for syndication in 2011, with a further 12% decline in 2012.
Global Print Spend to Decline, Outdoor to Inch Up
Zenith expects global spending in two other major ad verticals, newspapers and magazines, to decline in the coming years. Newspapers, which held 21.3% share in 2010, are predicted to drop to 20% in 2011, and decline even further over the forecast period, falling to 16.5% in 2014, representing an ad share loss of 17.5% from 2011. The share of the global market held by magazines is also expected to decline, though more moderately, shrinking 0.5% points a year to a 7.9% share in 2014. Within the US, Zenith predicts decreases in newspaper ad spend of 8.5% this year, and 8% in each of 2012, 2013, and 2014.
Meanwhile, global outdoor ad spend is predicted to reach $31.3 billion this year and grow 16.2% to $36.35 billion in 2014. Ad spend in radio and cinema is expected to grow at a smaller rate, with radio steadily losing market share over the time period and cinema holding its 0.5% share.
Internet Global Ad Share to Rise 33%
The share of global ad spending represented by the internet vertical, expected to reach 15.9% this year, is predicted to rise 33% to 21.2% in 2014. The internet will also be the largest contributor of new ad dollars to the global market, expected to account for 52.9% of the growth in total expenditure between 2011 and 2014, growing from $72.8 billion to $113.3 billion during the time period. According to November 2011 figures from the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), internet advertising revenues in the US have hit new highs, reaching $7.88 billion in Q3 2011, representing 22% growth from Q3 2010 and a 2.7% increase from the previous peak in Q2 2011.
Meanwhile, global display internet advertising spend, expected to reach $25.36 billion this year, should grow an impressive 68% to $42.65 billion in 2014. Similarly, paid search spend is forecast to grow 55%, from $35.5 billion to $55 billion. Classified internet ad spend, pegged at $11.99 billion in 2011, is expected to grow a comparatively small 30% to $15.6 billion in three years.