The poor condition of the US economy has caused the Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB) to re-issue its 2009 forecast for the local broadcast television industry to reflect larger-than-expected declines in Total Spot TV revenues for 2009.
TVB now predicts that Total Spot TV revenues in 2009 will decline between 7%-11% in comparison with this year’s revenues, with Local Spot revenues in a range of -4.0 to -8.0 and National Spot declining by 11.5% to 15.5%.
TVB also estimates that total 2008 spot revenues will decline 7.1% over last year, instead of coming in flat as was forecast in September.
“Due to the unprecedented economic developments of recent months, we reached out to all of our input sources and asked them to review the projections they gave us last summer,” said TVB President TVB Chris Rohrs. “These are not happy numbers to report, but they are the new reality. We take seriously our obligation to our Member Stations to give them the most accurate road map as they work through their planning.”
TVB expects that the 2009-10 landscape will be shaped by consumer confidence and spending, energy and food prices, debt and credit problems, the real estate market and the performance of the incoming Obama Administration.
Key advertising categories are expected to be automotive, political, retail, telecom and financial.
The recent revision represents only the second time TVB has revisited a forecast. The first time came after the 2002 forecast was rendered inoperative by the World Trade Center attacks six days after it was issued.
About the research: TVB estimates – derived from a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station representative firms, and independent TVB research – represent national averages. Individual firms and stations may produce varied results based on a number of factors, including market size, region of the country, and affiliation.