The global retail e-commerce market is estimated to reach close to $4 trillion for 2020, according to a forecast [download page] from GroupM. The predictions also envision retail e-commerce sales across the globe nearing the $7 trillion mark by 2024.
Per the report, e-commerce sales in 2020 grew by about 24% year-over-year to reach $3.9 trillion. This growth, which was, at least in part, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, means that e-commerce accounted for 17% of total global retail sales for the year.
And, while growth rates are expected to slow in the coming years, GroupM predicts that global retail e-commerce sales will reach $4.6 trillion in 2021 and $6.1 trillion by 2024. Looking further into the future, the report suggests that if the growth of e-commerce was to continue at its forecasted pace, sales could reach $10 trillion by 2027.
As for the outlook this year, GroupM projects that e-commerce’s share of retail sales will be highest in China (of the markets analyzed), rising to 27.3% share from last year’s 25%. Among the 7 countries analyzed, the UK is next, with e-commerce constituting a predicted fifth (19.9%) of retail sales, followed by the US (16.2%) and Germany (14%). In the other countries analyzed – Canada (8.3%), Japan (8.2%) and Australia (6.6%) – e-commerce is not predicted to account for a double-digit share of retail sales.
The full report can be downloaded here.