A new forecast from PQ Media reveals that the research firm has significantly lowered its prediction for digital out-of-home (DOOH) growth for 2009 and 2010, but still sees long-term promise in the DOOH market, reports MediaBuyerPlanner.
While PQ Media previously called for digital OOH growth of more than 6% this year, it is now saying DOOH will grow just 2%, to $2.5 billion, in the US. Next year, DOOH will grow 6.2%, to $2.62 billion, down from a previously forecast 10%. DOOH will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9.4% through 2014 in the US.
Another DOOH forecast released last month by BIA/Kelsey predicted that DOOH spending will continue to soar in coming years and the medium will increase at a rate of 13.5% annually, from $2.2 billion in 2009 to $3.7 billion in 2013. Kelsey’s forecast, which is more optimistic than PQ Media’s, also said that DOOH will? far outdistance traditional out-of-home’s 1.4% growth (which will grow from $4.4 billion to $4.6 billion).
PQ Media’s CEO and president, Patrick Quinn, said a number of things need to happen before DOOH becomes what he calls “the real deal.” Most important, the medium needs to solve problems of fragmentation, scalability and measurement. BIA/Kelsey predicted that some of those issues will be resolved in the next few years, with consolidation, partnerships and interoperable platforms becoming more integrated and spurring growth.
PQ predicts video advertising networks, the largest segment of DOOH, will grow 1.2% in 2009, with cinema up 6.1%. Video advertising networks will grow 5.7% in 2010, following a compound annual growth rate of 17.2% from 2004-2009. The next largest DOOH segment (and the fastest growing), digital billboards, will be up more than 9% for the year, and will grow by 13.2% in 2010.
DOOH will account for 34% of the total out-of-home market in 2009, and will make up 41.5% of the total OOH market by 2014.
India, China, Brazil and Canada are the leaders in terms of? international growth markets. Eastern European and Middle Eastern countries were hurt by the credit crunch and falling oil prices and this will continue to affect them throughout 2009. Asia/Pacific will be the fastest growing region of global digital OOH, rising 10.7% in 2009 to $2.18 billion, an acceleration of the 8.8% gain in 2008, when that region already was stuck in a recession before most of the rest of the world.
PQ also noted that that DOOH expenditures worldwide will grow 4.7% to $6.69 billion this year, and 10.1% over the next five years.
About the forecast: The PQ Media Global Digital Out-of-Home Media Forecast 2009-2014 provides in-depth research by global region, digital OOH media platforms and venue categories, ad categories, share of national versus local ad spend, profiles of more than 650 digital OOH operators.