Social Media Performance Seen Correlating With Voting Intention

January 4, 2012

This article is included in these additional categories:

Analytics, Automated & MarTech | Brand Metrics | Data-driven | Government & Politics | PR | Social Media

sociagility-socmedia-performance-voting.jpgA strong, positive correlation has been found between overall social media performance and voting intention amongst Iowans, according to January 2012 analysis from Sociagility, which applied its brand-focused PRINT algorithm to front-running Republican candidates and compared its data with polling data from Public Policy Polling. In fact, the strong correlation between social media performance and voting intention amongst Iowans (0.83 out of a possible 1.0 maximum) was almost matched by the correlation (0.82) between a candidate’s PRINT score for Facebook and national voting intention.
The PRINT index measures social footprint based on 5 attributes: popularity; receptiveness; interaction; network reach; and trust.

Obama Sports Most Fans

socialbakers-us-elections-socnet-infographic-jan12.gifWith more than 24.3 million Facebook fans, President Barack Obama easily leads all 2012 presidential candidates in fan volume, according to a January 2012 infographic from Socialbakers. Mitt Romney trails in distant second (1.3 million), followed by Ron Paul (0.7 million), Michele Bachmann (0.5 million), Newt Gingrich (0.2 million), and Rick Perry (0.2 million).

Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman have the least amount of fans, each with less than 50,000.

Obama Takes Half of All Interactions

socialbakers-presidential-candidates-socnet-likes-comments-jan11.gifMeanwhile, President Obama also holds the largest share (50%) of all likes and comments on Facebook, with Ron Paul (18.7%) and Mitt Romney (10.3%) the only others to hold double-digit share. Rick Perry (6.2%) and News Gingrich (5.7%) round out the top 5 by share of total interactions, with Michele Bachmann (5.6%) close behind. Total interactions is defined as all likes and comments from a candidate’s posts plus all likes and comments from people’s posts on the candidate’s page.

Measuring the candidates at different dates throughout December 2011, Socialbakers found that President Obama’s page had 87,000 likes and 16,000 comments, compared to Mitt Romney’s 26,000 likes and 2,600 comments, and Ron Paul’s 22,400 likes and 3,000 comments.

Paul Leads Republicans in Viral Reach

Ron Paul dominates the Republican field in viral reach, which is calculated as the total number of likes and comments multiplied by the average number of friends per Facebook user. With 65 million, he easily outpaces Romney (35 million), Rick Perry (21 million), and Newt Gingrich (20 million). President Obama leads all candidates with 173 million.

About the Data: The Sociagility PRINT study was conducted December 21. Socialbaker tracked 10 million Facebook Pages and Places and billions of individual user interactions between December 1 – 31, 2011. Measurements are taken as averages for given days and computed from the company’s social media analytics solution, which uses public data published by Facebook users on open and public fan pages.

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